Estimated Time =

Optimistic Time =

Most Likely Time =

Pessimistic Time =

The program evaluation and review technique (PERT) is a statistical tool used in project management, which was designed to analyze and represent the tasks involved in completing a given project. PERT is an estimating technique that uses a weighted average of three numbers to come up with a final estimate:

the most pessimistic case when everything goes wrong;

the most optimistic case where everything goes right;

the most likely case given normal problems and opportunities.

To estimates the number of days it may take to complete a task, the following PERT formula is used:

Te = (To + 4Tm + Tp) / 6

Where:

Te = Estimated time

To = Optimistic time

Tm = Most likely time

Tp = Pesimistic time.

Submitted by Hugo Perezcano

An academic is likely to take 60 days to write an article in normal circumstances. However, if she takes some time away and has no distractions, optimistically she could finish it in 45 days. Yet, if she is called to give expert evidence in a case, and needs to substitute for a fellow scholar who became ill as well as write a review on some other academic's article, it could take her 120 days to conclude hers. Therefore a good estimate in managing her project is to consider 67 or 68 days for her to turn in her article.

Estimated Time

Optimistic Time

Most Likely Time

Pessimistic Time

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program evaluation and review technique